Tuesday, April 02, 2002

TCS: Enviro-Sci - Antarctica Is Cooling

Models are great as long as they can be tested, but when one tries to model something as complex as the earth's global atmosphere and its relationship to the oceans and land masses, it is practically impossible to verify the model's accuracy without waiting for a century. In the meantime, who knows what small factors will tip the whole thing into a different track, given that length of time?

Newton's models and even the complex models used in computer assisted engineering are vastly simple compared to global climate. But any doubts about global warming are not just seen as naive and ignorant by environmentalists. They are treated as heresy and criminal thinking worthy of inquisitorial persecution.

The thing that made me a confirmed skeptic was the issue of Scientific American in late 2000 with articles on the advances in science we could expect in the next 50 years. The one on atmospheric science lauded the advent of more powerful computers which would make more detailed modeling possible. It struck me then that if research consists only of modelling, it will be a long time before we'll really know anything from it.

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