I think I hit on something in a comment I posted on the TCS TCS site under an essay on global warming:

This issue only exists because of computer modeling. It is significant because environmentalists see it as a perpetual cause for alarm to drive their fundraising.


There is too much chaos involved in climate to predict anything about it with any degree of certainty. Last week it was announced that most of the recent growth in greenhouse gases came from a huge forest fire in Indonesia. Volcanic eruptions can cause global cooling.


Maybe we could get some honesty if we insisted that those who want us to cripple our economy on the basis of their models will pay a penalty equal to the losses suffered if their predictions prove to be inaccurate. But I doubt it.

Paul Ehrlich has lost a number of bets based on his predictions. He no longer bets, but his failures haven't shut him up.


If these doomsayers were actually held accountable financially or some other way, it would have a very healthy effect on the debate.