Monday, April 05, 2004

The Shiites have hit the fan

Demonstrations have turned violent in Shiite slums of Baghdad. Supporters of Moqtada Sadr, a young radical cleric, are talking about an uprising to establish him has the head of an Islamist dictatorship like Iran's. I think that this kind of thing is not often followed through, especially when they're outgunned. It's a time for putting the hammer down.

I'm reading The Arab Mind by Raphael Patai and noted how Paul Bremer framed his announcement:
"A group of people in Najaf have crossed the line," Bremer said at a news conference. "This will not be tolerated. This will not be tolerated by the coalition, this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi people, and this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi security forces."
Patai points out that Arabs love to use flowery language and exaggeration and that statements of intent will often repeat the core point over and over. If they don't overstate their intent it will be interpreted as not being meant seriously. Bremer speaks Arabic and it appears that he knows how to talk the talk. They can't say they haven't been warned.

Update: Here's a profile of Sadr, who appears to be a demagogue of the worst sort. He crossed the line by telling his militia to turn on the "occupiers." Referring to Patai again, I think this will fizzle as quick as it arose.

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