Friday, March 24, 2006

Civil war or tribalism?

Charles Krauthammer sees the civil war in Iraq meme as self-evident and argues that its been there all along. Maybe so, if you remember that in the tribal culture of Arab countries the practice of revenge killing has existed since before Islam. So when Sunni guerrillas want to cause an all out civil war and drive out the Americans, they attack sacred Shia sites. And that worked, a little. What the more sober Shiites and the U.S. understand is that Iran would not bail out to let the sects fight it out. It is providing support to the terrorists as well as to Sadr's militia. So the main body of Iraqis has kept its cool, and declined to take to the streets. Iran is a Shiite nation, too, but it's taken a different path from traditional Shia which views government power as incompatible with holiness. Aytollahs in Iraq don't see themselves as future government officials, but they still have a great deal of influence over the public and they are smarter than to want to see full scale civil war. So there will always be the tribal infighting, but so far, it's not likely to go beyond the current levels.

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