The Shia Rising

On BookTV, yesterday, I saw a lecture by Vali Nasr about his new book, The Shia Revival. It was very impressive. I understand better now the nature of the sectarian violence in Iraq. It's an expression of pent up rage and hopes released by our overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

He is a very lucid speaker, and a professor of Middle East and South Asia politics at the Naval Postgraduate School. I ordered his book and am hoping it is as well written as his lecture was spoken. I have read a number of books about Islam and the Middle East, but they have given cursory treatment to the Shia. This book will fill that gap.

I understand more clearly now why we must no pull out of Iraq. The reason is that it must not be allowed to be overrun by Syria and Iran. The latter is poised for a move to dominate the entire region and the latter is its toady. The Israeli incursion into Lebanon wasn't just a fiasco--it could be a disaster if we don't move to undo the impression we gave that Hezbollah is equal to the vaunted IDF. I think that we must do all we can to prevent Iranian weapons from entering Lebanon. And destroying Syrias military assets wouldn't be a bad thing either. I, for one, would like an answer to whether Saddam's WMD are stashed there. Iran is clearly dangerous for more than its hoped for nuclear capability. It has produced high tech weaponry like the anti-ship missiles that nearly sank an Israeli ship. And if Hezbollah gets guided weapons the next go round will kill far more Israeiis than the Katyushkas did.

Even the New York Times sees what's happening, although I doubt it will change its spin. The challenge over the next few years including the next presidency is going to outweigh the Iraq War and the campaign in Yugoslavia. If we let our distaste for finishing things in Iraq overrule wisdom, this things could go pear-shaped in a hurry. We are terribly short of strong leadership right now, and the Democrats are busy purging what little they have, so I'm not county on help from that quarter.

The case needs to be made strongly, loudly and courageously, because if we fail, a lot more people, Iraqis, Iranians, Israelis and Americans are going to die. We can't run or hide or expect the U.N. to do anything constructive.

I think that it is futile to expect the Iraqis to share power. That's why they're sending out militias to kill each other. We need to guarantee the Kurds a modicum of autonomy, but require them to share the oil found in their region as a national resource. We ought to grant the Shiites the democratic power their numbers warrant, and if the Sunnis don't like it they can emigrate to whatever nation will take them.

There is a huge pent up desire for payback among the Shiites, but their Ayatollah Sistani is a more traditional voice than the Mullahs in Iran and he can rein them in if we stand with them. In the meantime, a lot of hotheads will kill each other and we will not be able to stop it completely, nor should we try. Only to make sure they're killing each other and not the innodents who only want law and order.