Kerry's Carter Moment

Remember how Carter's lead over Reagan evaporated after the debates? All the people had heard from the press was that Reagan was a psycho, liable to get us into nuclear war, etc. But when they saw him on TV, he came across as a sensible, nice guy. It was, like today, a situation where they weren't happy with the incumbent, but didn't really know the challenger. I remember it being described as being like a snowbank poised to drop. When people decided Reagan didn't look so bad, the drift let go like an avalanche.

This year we've seen the same phenomenon, but with an opposite result. The Democratic primary campaign gave us months of negative stories about Bush. People built a negative view of him as the Democrats attacked him in far worse terms than the Swift Boat Vets have attacked Kerry. But then the conventions happened. Kerry focused on his 4.5 months experience as a skipper of the SS. Minnow, claiming that it qualified him to run the entire military. He got a dead cat bounce.

Then the Republicans held theirs and did a fantastic job of reminding us of the fear, horror and heroism of 9/11/2004. They also explained cogently how important it is to keep the terrorists on the run, and how the effort in Iraq fits into the overall strategy to defeat them by establishing freedom and hope in the countries where they have flourished. There were not only a lot of undecideds who were persuaded, but I think there were more who had been swayed by all the "Bush Lied!" rhetoric who realized that the Republicans have a clear view of the situation and that their strategy makes sense. It was clear that Bush does not send our young men and women off to die without deep concern and thought. He knows how their families feel, as anyone who had visited grieving parents would, but his authentic marvelling at their pride and willingness to sacrifice for freedom came across powerfully.

The R's convention sat us down and made us face up to the real issues, and reminded us of what is at stake. The press' brainwashing was shaken off by a lot of people like the scene in The Two Towers when Gandalf exorcised the power of Saruman from his old friend, Theoden, kind of Rohan.

Now what remains is to hold onto that group and build on it. There are still two months left, but the Kerry Campaign is in disarray. The more vitriolic the press becomes, the more people turn to Fox News Channel. The atrocity in Russia only reminds us that the enemy is still out there, and that this war is not going to be over for a long time. The Cold War took 40 years to win, but it was against a empire concerned about its own survival. Religious terrorists see death as martyrdom and a short cut to heaven. The only way to deal with such people is to undercut their credibility with the societies that harbor them and through their own inhumanity foster poverty and despair, and that's what we're doing in Iraq. The people are starting to get it. Bush knows what he's doing.