Wednesday, August 16, 2006

If you want me, I'll be in the bomb shelter.

John Keegan reviews "Fiasco" by Thomas Ricks, and seems to agree with its critique of how we've handled Iraq. His conclusion isn't very optimistic:
Few would disagree with the analysis in "Fiasco." It is not, however, a complete explanation of what went wrong. Mr. Ricks makes several convincing points about what underlay the insurgency, notably the supreme importance of the value of respect for personal dignity in Arab society. He notes how, at least in the early stages of the occupation, American forces too often showed unconcern for Iraqi dignity--by performing too many tasks and conducting too many operations unilaterally. But he does not take account of what may underlie the whole insurgency, which is the rise of Islamic militancy across the Muslim world.

America was so certain that what it had to offer--modern government in an incorrupt and democratic form--was so obviously desirable that it failed altogether to understand that the Iraqis wanted something else, which is self-government in an Islamic form. It is too late now to start again.

All that can be hoped is that the U.S. Army will prevail in its counterinsurgency and, as Mr. Ricks's gripping accounts of the troops in action suggest, it may still. His description of Marines "attacking into an ambush" leaves one in no doubt that American soldiers know combat secrets that their enemies do not and cannot match. Whether pure military skills will win the war, however, cannot be predicted.
And to think this was the cheap plan.

I haven't heard any very good suggestions for how to deal with terrorism consistent with our beliefs in law and order. We're looking as bad at this point as the Soviets did before they left Afghanistan. The problem is that we can't just turn our backs on the Muslim world and hope they'll drop their jihad, unless we decide to apply Hama rules. None of the options are very encouraging.

One thing is sure, Iran is on a roll and we're going to have to confront it eventually. The question is how long we should wait and trust diplomacy. We probably should be bombing Iran's industrial base right now, but Americans have a history of ignoring problems until they can only be solved through through more violence than would have been necessary earlier. Maybe we'll figure it out when we have suicide bombers killing themselves at the malls.

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